Stan Beer refutes Bergoff’s prediction of YouTube’s copyright demise

October 4, 2006

In “Impending death of YouTube is greatly exaggerated,” Stan Beer of ITWire in Australia responds today to Forrester Research’s Josh Bergoff, who predicted that YouTube would suffer the same fate as Napster.

First, Beer notes how Bergoff cavalierly dismissed any dissenters of his views: “Reading Bernoff’s blog on this subject was quite interesting because he invited readers to comment on his views and of six comments, five disagreed with him, all raising plausible arguments and most pointing to differences between YouTube and Napster. This prompted a mildly irritated Bernoff to lodge his own post admonishing the posters who disagreed with his views for indulging in ‘soft-headed thinking.'”

Second, Beer questions Bergoff’s basic premise that YouTube is the same as Napster:  “If Universal Music and wants to get narky and sue YouTube (and MySpace), then I’m quite sure YouTube will gladly remove all offending Universal material that has been posted. If Universal insists on pursuing a few million in damages, there will be no shortage of backers for a site that is now one of the highest ranking sites on the web.

“YouTube is a site that has original content galore and it is so popular that NBC and soon others will be lining up to use it to promote their shows. It bears no resemblance at all to the original Napster. So, no Mr Bernoff, it won’t be shut down. I guess that makes me another soft-headed thinker eh?”

Analysis:  I’ve already written extensively on the issue.  See the posts below.  No one has a crystal ball, but I favor Beer’s analysis over Berghoff’s based on what has happened so far with YouTube and the growing number of corporate deals it has struck with major content providers.

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